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歐佩克第二大產油國伊拉克準備減產

2019-09-11     來源: 中國石化新聞網
石化新聞

中國石化新聞網訊 據今日油價9月9日報道,自從歐佩克開始限制石油生產以來,伊拉克這個僅次于沙特阿拉伯的歐佩克第二大產油國,在過去兩年半的時間里幾乎每個月都超過產量上限。但是現在伊拉克說它已經準備好減產。

伊拉克石油部長加赫班(Thamer Ghadhban)表示,伊拉克現在已經準備好下個月減少原油產量。這位官員在一份聲明中說:“我們致力于達成減產協議。”ghadhban的聲明與證據背道而馳,這些證據表明,自第一份減產協議簽署以來,伊拉克一直未能履行其減產義務。

對伊拉克來說,“歐佩克+”協議恰逢該國安全局勢的改善,石油產量開始穩步增長。

盡管巴格達聲稱它需要更高的石油產量來獲得更多的石油收入(占政府收入的90%),以重建一個遭受數十年戰爭破壞的國家,但作為歐佩克的第二大石油生產國卻在這個歐佩克這個卡特爾組織的車輪里別了根輻條——他希望其他所有成員國都遵守協議,進行石油產量削減。

伊拉克未能完全遵守協議也是歐佩克內部緊張局勢的原因之一,另外德黑蘭還認為歐佩克內部的競爭對手竊取了它的市場份額。

標準普爾全球普氏(s&p global platts)上周公布的最新月度調查顯示,伊拉克8月份的產油創下新高,據估計,該國已以488萬桶/日的速度注入了創紀錄的石油。

普拉茨的調查顯示,伊拉克8月份的日產量比7月份增加了10萬桶,超過伊拉克上個月451萬桶的日產量配額,高達37萬桶。

路透社的調查還發現,伊拉克8月份增產,路透社和普拉茨的調查都估計,盡管歐佩克不斷呼吁“全面遵守”和“市場穩定”,但今年8月份歐佩克首次提高了石油產量。調查顯示,伊拉克和尼日利亞是歐佩克8月份增產的最大貢獻者之一。

歐佩克8月份的官方產量數據將于9月11日公布,但此前公布的7月份石油市場月度報告顯示,伊拉克的產量增幅最大,7月份產量增加了32000桶/日,達到475.3萬桶/日,而沙特阿拉伯7月份的產量則被Ano每天13.4萬蘭特,低于歐佩克配額50多萬桶石油。

彭博社(Bloomberg)的船舶跟蹤數據顯示,歐佩克8月份也提高了石油出口,伊拉克石油部的數據顯示,伊拉克原油出口從7月份的356.6萬桶/日增加到上月的363.3萬桶/日。

標普環球普拉特(S&P Global Platts)大宗商品定價全球主管戴夫?恩斯伯格(Dave Ernsberger)上周對CNBC表示:“最近伊拉克石油產量的增加,讓原本讓歐佩克頭疼的問題變成了徹底的偏頭痛。”

伊拉克的這些增產再次引起了歐佩克主要成員國沙特阿拉伯的注意。自歐佩克+聯盟于2017年1月開始減產以來,歐佩克曾多次就破壞減產的行為,向違背協議的成員發出警告。

不久前,伊拉克石油部長塔默加赫班周日表示,伊拉克將從10月份開始削減石油產量,并將堅持歐佩克的減產計劃。他說,過去幾個月,由于夏季國內需求增加,伊拉克的石油產量超過了配額,煉油廠將在10月份進入維修期,國內需求將下降。

洪偉立 摘譯自 今日油價

原文如下:

Is OPEC’s No.2 Finally Cutting Production?

Since OPEC started restricting oil production, Iraq—the cartel’s second-largest oil producer behind Saudi Arabia—has exceeded its output cap almost every month for more than two and a half years now. But now Iraq says it is ready to get onboard.

Iraq says it is now ready to reduce its crude oil production next month, its oil minister, Thamer Ghadhban, said as quoted by Reuters. “We are committed to the agreement to reduce production,” the official said in a statement. Ghadhban’s statement runs counter to evidence, which shows that Iraq has consistently failed to comply with its production cut obligations ever since the first production cut agreement was inked.

For Iraq, the OPEC+ deal coincided with the time when?oil production started to steadily grow as security improved in late 2017 .

While Baghdad has argued that it needs higher oil production to get more oil revenues—which account for 90 percent of its government proceeds— to rebuild a country damaged by decades of wars, OPEC’s second-biggest oil producer has been putting a spoke in the cartel’s wheel to have all members fully compliant with the cuts.

Iraq’s continuous non-compliance has also created another reason for tension within OPEC, on top of Iran balking at other members (Saudi Arabia and allies) over what Tehran sees as rival producers within the cartel stealing its market share while Iran is under U.S. sanctions.

Iraq’s non-compliance reached a new high in August when it is estimated to have pumped a record-high volume of oil at 4.88 million bpd, the latest monthly S&P Global Platts survey showed last week.

Iraq pumped 100,000 bpd more in August than in July, exceeding Iraq’s output quota of 4.512 million bpd by a whopping 370,000 bpd last month, the Platts survey showed.

The Reuters survey also found Iraq increasing its production in August and estimates by both Reuters and Platts surveys point to OPEC having boosted oil production in August for the first time this year, despite its continuous calls for ‘full compliance’ and ‘market stability.’ Iraq was one of the biggest contributors to OPEC’s production rise in August, alongside Nigeria, according to the surveys.

OPEC’s official August production figures are due out on September 11, but the previous Monthly Oil Market Report with data for July showed that Iraq booked the biggest production increase, raising output by 32,000 bpd to 4.753 million bpd in July, while Saudi Arabia cut its July output by another 134,000 bpd to stay more than half a million barrels of oil per day below its OPEC quota.

OPEC also lifted its oil exports in August, ship tracking data by Bloomberg showed, and Iraq’s crude oil exports increased to 3.603 million bpd last month from 3.566 million bpd in July, according to data from Iraq’s oil ministry.

“The recent increases in Iraqi production turned what was a sort of minor headache for OPEC into a fully-blown migraine,” Dave Ernsberger, who is global head of commodities pricing at S&P Global Platts, told CNBC last week.

These production increases in Iraq drew the attention of OPEC’s kingpin Saudi Arabia, again. The cartel’s de facto leader has called out rogue members over their sketchy compliance record several times since the OPEC+ alliance began cutting production in January 2017.

A few days later, Iraq’s Oil Minister Thamer Ghadhban said on Sunday that Iraq would be cutting its oil production starting in October and will stick to the OPEC production cuts. Over the past few months, Iraq has pumped above its quota because of higher domestic demand in the summer, Ghadhban said, adding that refineries would enter maintenance in October and domestic demand would drop.

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